CFA’s Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator, up 12.5 points in November

 

Compared to the same month of the previous year, the indicator decreased by 12.4 points.

 

This evolution was due to both components of the Indicator.

 

Thus, the current conditions indicator increased compared to the previous month by 14.2 points, to the value of 34.1 points (compared to the same month of the previous year, the current conditions indicator decreased by 34.7 points). The anticipation indicator increased by 11.6 points compared to the previous month, to the value of 49.8 points (compared to the same month of the previous year, the anticipation indicator decreased by 1.2 points).

 

Regarding the euro / leu exchange rate, 91% of the survey participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months (compared to the current value). Thus, the average value of the anticipations for the 6-month horizon is 4.9253 lei, while for the 12-month horizon the average value of the anticipated exchange rate is 4.9906 lei for one euro.

 

The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (December 2021 / December 2020) registered an average value of 2.41%.

 

It is noteworthy that 64% of the survey participants consider the price of real estate in large cities to be overvalued.

 

Since April of this year, additional questions have been added to the survey on the impact of the coronavirus crisis on the national economy, and the results for November 2020 show: the duration of the economic impact of coronavirus - most respondents (approximately 58%) anticipates that it will be felt strongly by the third quarter of 2021; the deficit of the anticipated state budget for 2020: the average value of the anticipations is 9.0%; evolution, in real terms of GDP in 2020: the average value of expectations is -4.4%; unemployment rate at the end of 2020: the average value of expectations is 6.5%.

 

For 2021, the expectations of evolution in real terms of GDP are + 3.3%.

 

The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator was launched by the CFA Romania Association in May 2011 and is an indicator through which the organization wants to quantify the expectations of financial analysts regarding economic activity in Romania for a period of one year.

 

Also, the survey on the basis of which the indicator is calculated includes questions related to the assessment of current macroeconomic conditions.